In preparing this commentary, I found that while there has been plenty of news lately, the market hasn’t moved much. Even after five consecutive down days in the S&P 500 following last week’s all-time high, the index experienced only a modest decline of 1.5%. Despite the news, our data show a largely positive environment for further advances in the current bull market even if there are still lingering concerns.
Currently, markets face several factors: from President Trump’s meeting with Putin last week on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, recent earnings reports, uncertainty about a Fed rate cut following weak jobs data but mixed inflation numbers, and the arrival of September, historically the weakest month for markets. So, after the run-up we’ve seen since April, it’s possible we may see a pullback in the near future.
However, it is difficult currently to identify significant weaknesses in the market. Recent charts confirm an upward trend in the market. A Lowry Research report, dated August 15, 2025, indicates a short-term shift in the stock market favoring the bulls. However, while near-term evidence suggests improvement and eases some concerns, these concerns have not been entirely eliminated. And, while fundamentals suggest stocks are overvalued, our firm, Global View Capital Management, relies on tactical and quantitative analysis. We look at the price action of all the markets to dictate our positioning, and right now we are 2 months into a new Long-Term Buy. For perspective, those signals, on average, have lasted 30 months historically. So, the trend is our friend right now.
Then there’s the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve (the Fed), scheduled on September 16–17, 2025, with their monetary policy decision set to be announced on the 17th. Current market expectations indicate a possible reduction in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at their September meeting.
Then, as of the time of this writing today, August 22, 2025, there’s much anticipation for when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at today’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Powell’s remarks will be closely watched to see if he indicates a shift toward lower interest rates or sticks to his guns about the importance of the Fed’s independence despite political pressure. So, he may or may not give a glimpse into what the Fed might do in September, and it’s likely that today we may see some volatility.
At GVCM, we recognize that we can’t predict what the markets will do next (no one really can). But this awareness of the market’s unpredictability is also what keeps us alert, proactive, and adaptable to changing conditions, and our unique investment platform is what allows us to respond effectively as market conditions change.
As always, I’m just a call or email away if you need anything or have any questions. Have a wonderful end to your summer. Until next time.
