If March reminded investors how quickly markets can become unsettled, April has reminded us just as quickly how markets can recover. Since the late-March pullback, stocks have staged an impressive rebound, with the S&P 500 recovering strongly and recently pushing back toward new highs. In simple terms, the market bent — but it did not break.
One reason for the rebound has been stronger momentum beneath the surface. More stocks have participated in the recovery (market breadth), not just a handful of large companies. This broader participation is often viewed as a healthier sign than rallies driven by only a few names. Even with all the noise in the headlines, the market has shown resilience and an ability to move higher when fear levels begin to ease.
That said, headlines still matter right now — especially surrounding Iran. As of today, April 21st, markets appear cautious ahead of tomorrow evening’s looming ceasefire deadline. Investors are watching closely to see whether tensions cool further, whether negotiations are extended, or whether conflict risks rise again. The most immediate place this has shown up is in oil prices, which have moved sharply based on every new headline. When oil rises quickly, markets tend to pay attention because higher energy costs can eventually affect inflation, consumers, and business costs. So as of this writing, we’re still in a wait-and-see.
This is another good reminder that markets often move ahead of certainty. They do not wait for all answers. Instead, they constantly reprice based on probabilities. That is why one day can feel negative, only to be followed by a strong recovery the next. It can be frustrating emotionally – others may feel unnerved – but it is also normal market behavior.
And as I’ve mentioned in previous newsletters, it is also worth remembering that 2026 is a midterm election year. Historically, midterm years can be choppier than average, especially during the spring and summer months, as markets sort through political uncertainty and shifting expectations. While history never guarantees the future, it does remind us that periods of volatility during years like this are not unusual.
As always, our approach remains the same: we monitor the data, follow our tactical strategies, and allow our managers to adjust as conditions evolve. Headlines may continue to come fast, but discipline and perspective are especially important during times like these. If you have concerns or would like to revisit your plan, please reach out. Otherwise, we’ll continue doing what we always do — remaining calm and disciplined, trusting the process, and letting the data guide the way.
