A lot has happened since our last newsletter.
Just a few weeks ago, it seemed like every headline was about Iran, oil prices, and what might happen next. As we’ve talked about before, markets don’t like uncertainty, and there certainly wasn’t a shortage of it. Investors were worried that higher oil prices could eventually lead to higher inflation and put more pressure on the economy.
Fortunately, some of those concerns have eased. The situation with Iran appears to have stabilized for now, and oil prices have come down from their recent highs. If you remember my March commentary, I joked that filling up my vehicle was giving me a case of “car-owner virus” all over again. Thankfully, the symptoms seem to be improving. I don’t know about you, but my wallet definitely appreciated my last trip to Kwik Trip (and judging by the fact that I haven’t heard any complaints lately from my broke teenagers about how much it costs to fill up their cars, I’m guessing they’re pretty happy about it too). Does that mean everything is resolved? Probably not. But for now, investors seem encouraged that we’re heading in a better direction than we were a month ago.
We also had the first Federal Reserve meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. As expected, interest rates were left unchanged, although the market seemed a little unsure how to react at first. That’s pretty normal anytime a new Fed Chair takes over. Investors spend a lot of time trying to read between the lines and figure out what might happen next. For now, inflation remains something to watch, but recent data suggests some of the longer-term concerns may be easing.
Of course, it would be hard to talk about this month without mentioning SpaceX. One of the most anticipated IPOs in years finally made its debut and captured plenty of attention. Whether someone decides to invest in it or not, I think it highlights something we’ve seen throughout much of this bull market: investors still have a strong appetite for innovation, technology, artificial intelligence, and the next big idea.
Beneath all the headlines, the market itself has actually held up fairly well. One encouraging sign is that participation has broadened beyond just a handful of large technology companies. At the same time, many investors remain surprisingly cautious despite markets sitting near record highs. That’s interesting because market tops often occur when everyone becomes overly optimistic. Right now, there still seems to be plenty of skepticism left in the system. And while 2026 is a midterm election year—which can often bring periods of volatility—the broader trend remains constructive for now.
As always, our approach remains the same: we monitor the data, follow our tactical strategies, and allow our managers to adjust as conditions evolve. Headlines may continue to come fast, but discipline and perspective remain important. If your personal situation, retirement timeline, or long-term goals have changed, please let us know. Otherwise, we’ll continue doing what we always do — staying disciplined, staying focused, and letting the data guide our next steps. See you next time.
