Market information and commentary are current as of September 16, 2026.
Last month I referenced the old Wall Street saying, “Don’t fight the Fed,” and compared the Federal Reserve to one of those old-school Atari joysticks controlling the economy. I also said that when the Fed raises interest rates, it’s a little like “tapping the brakes.”
Well…the Fed just tapped the brakes.
As I write this on September 16th, the Federal Reserve just raised interest rates by a quarter of a percent—its first rate increase in more than three years. Why? Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, and rising energy prices have made the Fed’s job even more difficult.
August inflation came in at 3.4% compared with a year ago, with gasoline prices rising nearly 4% during the month. Meanwhile, oil has climbed back above $100 per barrel amid continued supply concerns and tensions in the Middle East.
Why does that matter?
Because higher energy prices don’t necessarily stay at the gas pump. Think about how many things in our economy have to be transported—from food and building materials to virtually everything we order online. Higher fuel costs can eventually work their way through transportation, production and ultimately the prices we pay for everyday goods and services.
So, after spending much of the past couple of years wondering when interest rates might come down, Wall Street is suddenly confronting a very different question: how much further might they go up?
Not surprisingly, the markets have been a little more unsettled as investors try to figure out what higher interest rates might mean going forward. But as I’ve said many times, markets don’t like uncertainty—and right now, there’s certainly no shortage of it.
But here’s where I think some perspective is important.
Despite inflation, higher oil prices, rising interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and all the usual concerns surrounding a midterm election year, the stock market has remained relatively resilient and is still relatively close to its recent highs.
And then there are those infamous “September Blues.”
Yes, September has historically been the weakest month of the year for stocks. But as I often remind clients, history can give us perspective—it doesn’t tell us what happens next. There may be a historical tendency, but it’s certainly not a guarantee. Even looking specifically at recent midterm election years, September has been a mixed bag.
That’s why I think it’s a good thing that we don’t try to predict what might happen next—or make investment decisions based on what we think might happen. Instead, our managers let the data dictate what they do next. If those signals tell the managers that market conditions are changing, they have the ability to adjust with them.
There will always be something for investors to worry about. Sometimes those concerns matter; sometimes they become just another headline that eventually fades away. Our job isn’t to try to predict which one it will be.
It’s to have a strategy designed to respond when the markets actually give us a reason to change.
Until then, we’ll let the managers manage and take this market one day at a time.
